- S&P 500 up 61 factors, or 1.5%, to 4067
- US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to three.31%
- WTI crude oil up $2.78 to $86.32
- Gold up $8 to $1715
- AUD leads, USD lags
The financial spotlight was the Canadian jobs report and for the second month, it stumbled. Which will start to offer the Financial institution of Canada pause on its aggressive mountain climbing path however it did not harm the loonie too badly as oil gained and the US greenback stumbled broadly. USD/CAD rose to 1.3050 from 1.3000 on the report however completed midway in between.
The height of right this moment’s USD weak spot got here late in Asia however there was a modest flip from there as USD/JPY rebounded from a low of 141.51 to 142.69. There are numerous individuals speaking a few greenback prime and with Europe attempting to unravel the power disaster, there’s some scope there. However USD/JPY stays the primary occasion this yr and except for some jawboning, the BOJ hasn’t budged.
In FX, US buying and selling was uneven and customarily sideways however that wasn’t the case in equities because the Nasdaq led a rally. That led to the primary acquire in 5 weeks and it was a hefty one at 4.1%.
Eyes are on subsequent week’s CPI and the possibilty of a unfavourable headline. The Fed has basically pushed it apart as a determined for the Sept 21 FOMC however a low studying might tee up a less-hawkish assertion. What market individuals are questioning about are the steadiness between headline and core in CPI. There’s ample cause to anticipate a headline rollover within the close to time period however that is not so clear with core, which is forecast to rise 0.3% subsequent week. How a lot is that going to must gradual to halt the Fed’s advance?
The bond market continues to sign a better Fed prime and Waller endorsed that right this moment by speaking about 4% as his baseline. Fed funds have edged towards there for the March assembly (implied 4.01%) whereas the 2-year yield hit a brand new cycle excessive a 3.56% on Friday.
Have an ideal weekend.