Modeling the dynamics of Bitcoin cryptocurrency quotes (BTC/USD).
The fashions of doable future dynamics of Bitcoin cryptocurrency quotes offered on this analytical materials as of November 29, 2022 have a excessive chance of realization (75% – 99%) and are related as of the date of their compilation. Which means that no mannequin of future dynamics can have a 100% chance of being realized, and that completely each mannequin requires subsequent changes to the time and price intervals of future value fluctuations, relying on the rising fractal buildings of low and medium orders.
The fashions of the longer term dynamics of Bitcoin cryptocurrency quotes offered under are primarily based on high-order fractal buildings, the implementation of which needs to be adopted so long as the formation of low- and medium-order fractal buildings corresponds to them. In any other case, a revision of the worldwide fractal construction is required and the compilation of latest fashions, taking into consideration the newly shaped fractal buildings of medium and low orders.
The longer term dynamics of Bitcoin quotes is set by the worldwide fractal construction that’s shaped on the chart of the BTC/USD quotes dynamics, which is a fractal construction of the best order, which is a world fractal attractor, the development of which in a non-linear dynamic system happens concurrently with fractal buildings of excessive, medium and low orders (in together with these shaped on charts with minute time frames).
Under is an evaluation of the fractal construction that has developed on the charts of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) quotes dynamics, plotted as of 11/27/2022 with the next time frames: 34 years, 21 years, 13 years, 10 years, 8 years, 5 years, 3 years, 2 years, 1 12 months, 6 months, 4 months, 3 months, 2 months, 1 month, 1 week, 1 day.
Evaluation of fractal buildings of various orders lets you decide which fractals are shaped, which fractals are shaped and which fractals might be shaped, thereby figuring out doable situations for the event of the chart for modeling future quotes dynamics.
The beginning interval for plotting is March 2011. All charts under are constructed as of the closing of the week 11/27/2022.
To find out the worldwide fractal construction, let’s first think about charts constructed with time frames: 34 years, 21 years, 13 years, 10 years.
On fig. 1 the charts are primarily based on the standard values of quotes. Bearing in mind the rise in the price of Bitcoin by greater than 100,000 occasions, to find out the segmentation of fractal buildings, we’ll think about graphs constructed on logarithmic values.
On fig. 2 reveals the absence of segmentation of fractal buildings on charts with time frames: 34 years, 21 years, 13 years, 10 years.
The shortage of segmentation can also be noticed on charts with smaller time frames: 8 years (Fig. 3), 5 years (Fig. 4) and three years (Fig. 5).
Segmentation within the fractal construction is noticed on charts constructed with time frames of two years and under.
The absence of segmentation on charts with time frames of three years and above means that the primary section of the worldwide fractal has not but been shaped inside the uptrend. On this case, we denote the mono-segment shaped on these charts as the first section of the worldwide fractal F.
On fig. 7 The first section of the worldwide fractal F is schematically marked with a crimson line. This mono-segment will probably be a fractal of the first order F1.
Subsequent, let’s transfer on to the evaluation of fractal buildings on charts with time frames under 3 years to find out the kind and kind of the worldwide fractal-attractor that this 1st section of the F fractal, marked in crimson, will are likely to.
Let’s begin the evaluation of fractal buildings on the chart with a 1-year time-frame with the belief that on the chart with a 2-year time-frame (Fig. 8), the fractal marked in inexperienced is the F11 fractal.
On a chart constructed with a time-frame of 1 12 months utilizing the standard values (Fig. 9), it’s troublesome to establish segments of fractals F111, F112, F113.
Let’s denote the segments of the fractal F11, on the chart with a time-frame of 1 12 months, constructed on logarithmic values.
On this case, the present dynamics of Bitcoin quotes takes place inside the framework of the formation of the F13 fractal (Fig. 11), which is the third section of the fractal, marked in blue.
On a chart with a time-frame of 6 months, the third section (F13) of the blue fractal is marked as “3n”, which suggests the associated fee and time intervals of the first and third segments are equal.
On the chart with a time-frame of 6 months, the formation of a fractal, indicated in Fig. 12 in vibrant inexperienced coloration, which in relation to the blue fractal has a decrease order by one and which might be its third section.
On this case, the first section of the brilliant inexperienced fractal is accomplished and the dynamics that we’re presently observing takes place inside the framework of the formation of the 2nd section of the brilliant inexperienced fractal.
This assumption says that the downtrend within the dynamics of Bitcoin quotes will proceed till 2023, till the second when the 2nd section of the brilliant inexperienced fractal ends and the formation of the third section begins.
The 2nd section of the brilliant inexperienced fractal, after the quotes overcome the mark of 28347.49, which is from the start of the decline by 61.8% from the associated fee interval of the first section, will have a tendency to succeed in the help stage at 3219.24 (Fig. 13).
Analyzing the fractal buildings which have shaped on charts constructed with time frames of three months or much less, we are able to assume that the most probably decline in quotes as a part of the formation of the 2nd section of a vibrant inexperienced fractal will probably be a lower in quotes by the formation of a fractal, indicated by rice. 14 in orange, which, after its completion, will finish the downtrend by finishing the 2nd section of the brilliant inexperienced fractal.
An evaluation of fractal buildings on charts with time frames of a month or much less reveals that the dynamics of quotes is within the stage of formation of the 2nd section of the orange fractal (Fig. 15), after the completion of the first section on the level with coordinates (06/18/2022; 17630,50).
The completion of the 2nd section of the orange fractal could happen at the start of March 2023 on the stage of 33000.00, after which the downward dynamics will proceed as a part of the formation of the third section of the orange fractal.
Bearing in mind these assumptions, the most probably mannequin for the longer term dynamics of Bitcoin quotes will probably be a mannequin based on which the worldwide fractal construction will have a tendency on the stage of fractal buildings of excessive, medium and low orders to kind an attractor fractal F12 (view 1, sort 2), designated on the chart with a blue fractal (Fig. 16) on the time interval (2011; 2028).
The fractal-attractor, marked in blue with segments F11, F12, F13, would be the 1st section F1 of a fractal of a better order, marked in crimson (Fig. 16).
This mannequin for a long-term time period assumes that inside the downward dynamics of Bitcoin quotes, which started on the level with coordinates (11/10/2021; 69000.00), a 4th order fractal, indicated by F1321 segments, ought to kind. F1322. F1323 is orange, which is able to signify the 2nd section of the third order fractal, indicated by vibrant inexperienced segments F131, F132, F133 (Fig. 16).
In the mean time, the formation of a vibrant inexperienced fractal within the type of an F23 fractal (2nd view, third sort) with a truncated third section F133 appears to be the most probably, the completion of which falls at the start of 2028 across the mark 43871.75.
The completion of a vibrant inexperienced fractal having a third order will imply the completion of a blue fractal having a 2nd order and the completion of the first section of a crimson fractal having the best 1st order.
In the long run, we are able to say that the tip of the downtrend could happen on the time interval (2021; 2023), after which the uptrend will start on the time interval (2023; 2028). Additional dynamics of Bitcoin quotes after 2028 will happen in a world bearish development as a part of the formation of the 2nd section F2 of the crimson fractal, which is indicated on the chart by the 2nd order fractal by segments F21, F22, F23 purple.
An evaluation of fractal buildings that develop on charts with time intervals of 1 month or much less offers cause to consider that the first section of the fractal, indicated in vibrant inexperienced, was shaped on the time interval (12/15/2018; 11/10/2021) within the type of the F11 fractal (1st view, 1st sort), marked in olive coloration (Fig. 17).
The 2nd section of the brilliant inexperienced fractal presently being shaped within the type of a fractal of a decrease order of orange coloration is within the stage of formation of a fractal, indicated in brown, which, after its completion, will signify the 2nd section of an orange fractal of a better order.
In accordance with the evaluation of fractal buildings of smaller orders, shaped on the charts of the weekly and every day timeframe, we are able to assume that the first section of the brown fractal is accomplished and the present dynamics is happening inside the framework of the formation of the 2nd section of the brown fractal.
In the mean time, within the medium time period, it’s most probably that Bitcoin quotes will proceed to fall to the extent of 11426.76, adopted by a pointy enhance in quotes to the resistance stage at 32985.60, as a part of the formation of the third section of the brown fractal, which is able to full the 2nd section of the orange larger order fractal. This needs to be adopted by a lower in quotes as a part of the formation of the third section of the orange fractal in the direction of a powerful help stage at round 3219.24.
An orange fractal accomplished on this manner will cease the downtrend by forming the 2nd section of a vibrant inexperienced fractal.
To foretell the dynamics of Bitcoin quotes for a brief time period, an evaluation of fractal buildings on charts with weekly, every day and hourly time frames is required.
An evaluation of the fractal construction on the chart with a weekly time-frame (Fig. 18) means that the first section of the orange fractal was shaped on the time interval (11/10/2021; 06/18/2022) within the type of the F22 fractal (view 2, sort 2), after which the downward dynamics was a facet development as a part of the formation of the 2nd section of this orange fractal.
In the mean time, essentially the most possible situation is that the 2nd section of the orange fractal can kind within the type of an F15 fractal (view 1, sort 5), which is indicated in mild brown.
We will confidently assume that the first section of the sunshine brown fractal shaped as a lightweight purple fractal on the time interval (06/18/2022; 11/05/2022).
On this case, the quotes decline from the purpose with coordinates (11/05/2022; 21464.70) will proceed, as it should happen inside the formation of the 2nd section of the sunshine brown fractal, which can finish at 11426.76. After that, quotes will rise to the resistance stage at 32985.60 as a part of the formation of the third section of the sunshine brown fractal, the completion of which is able to imply the completion of the 2nd section of the orange fractal, which has the next order by one.
With the completion of the 2nd section of the orange fractal, the flat development will finish and the quotes will start to say no as a part of the formation of the third section of the orange fractal.
An evaluation of the fractal construction shaped on the chart of the Bitcoin quotes dynamics, constructed with a every day time-frame as of November 27, 2022 (Fig. 19), means that the longer term dynamics of quotes within the brief time period will happen in a sideways development as a part of the formation of a 2-th section of the fractal, which is marked in blue.
The fractal marked in blue, in case of its formation, would be the 2nd section of the fractal with an order one larger, which is marked in mild brown. The estimated completion time for the blue fractal is mid-December 2022.
The decline in quotes will probably be short-term because of the truth that after the completion of the 2nd section of the sunshine brown fractal, the third section will start to kind, on account of which Bitcoin quotes could soar to 33,000.00 by March 2023.
The fashions of the longer term dynamics of the worth of monetary belongings for the brief, medium and long run indicated within the analytical experiences could require sooner or later to make changes to the values of the time and price intervals of the anticipated fractal buildings in accordance with how fractal buildings of assorted orders (low, medium, excessive), underneath the affect of what’s occurring within the international monetary market.
Vital. The chance of realizing a mannequin of future worth dynamics can by no means be 100%. At any second of time, there are at all times a number of fashions for the event of future dynamics. Some fashions have the next chance of implementation, others much less. Because the dynamics develop, some fashions stop to be related for implementation, opening a window of alternative for the implementation of different new fashions.
The method of modeling the dynamics of worth within the monetary market is steady 24/7/365.